Experts Warn Herd Immunity Strategy Without a Vaccine Is Dangerous, Could Be a “Massacre” for Americans
Trump Still Holding Rallies Without Mask or Social Distancing Requirements
As coronavirus cases in the United States soar, the Trump administration has given up on trying to address the crisis and protect Americans. New reports suggest that the White House is instead embracing “herd immunity” without a vaccine, junk science that lets the virus tear through the population in an attempt to hasten the end of the pandemic.
But experts agree that pushing for herd immunity is dangerous and unethical.
Even so, President Trump seems to be acting in accordance with this “strategy,” hosting dangerous super-spreader rallies in direct violation of expert recommendations.
The White House Has Embraced “Herd Immunity” as a Strategy to Hasten the End of the Coronavirus Crisis
- The White House Embraced A Declaration Arguing That Authorities Should Allow The Virus To Spread To Achieve “Herd Immunity.” “The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at ‘herd immunity’ through infections rather than a vaccine… The declaration’s architects include Sunetra Gupta and Gabriela Gomes, two scientists who have proposed that societies may achieve herd immunity when 10 to 20 percent of their populations have been infected with the virus, a position most epidemiologists disagree with.” [New York Times, 10/13/20]
- The Strategy, Called “Focused Protection,” Flouts Distancing Guidelines And Allows The Virus To Spread Naturally Among Young People. “The three scientists pushing the strategy, which they call Focused Protection… argue that their approach would decrease the undesirable public health effects of restrictions and closures, which disproportionately affect lower-income people. The declaration does not mention wearing masks, engaging in social distancing, avoiding crowds and indoor environments, or any of the other recommendations pushed by most government and scientific experts. The authors contend that permitting the virus to spread naturally among young people — who are much less likely than their elders to have a severe outcome — will shorten the pandemic by hastening the arrival of herd immunity, the point at which there’s enough immunity in the general population to prevent the virus from spreading at epidemic rates.” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
- President Trump Has Drifted Away From The Counsel Of Top Government Scientists And Is Instead Embracing The Arguments Of Dr. Scott Atlas, Who Subscribes To The Notion Of Focused Protection. “Trump has long chafed at the economic damage from shutdowns imposed to control the pandemic, and has repeatedly pushed states to reopen, at one point threatening to withhold federal funding from states that did not open schools. After he contracted the virus and developed symptoms of covid-19 serious enough to require hospitalization, Trump still urged the public, ‘Don’t be afraid of Covid.’ In pushing his agenda, Trump has steadily drifted away from the counsel of his own government’s top doctors, such as White House coronavirus task force coordinator Deborah Birx and Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Into that void has stepped [Scott] Atlas, who has relied on the maverick scientists to bolster his in-house arguments.”
- Senior Administration Officials Say That “Focused Protection,” Which Has Been Denounced By Infectious Disease Experts,” Supports Trump’s Policy “For Months.” “A senior administration official told reporters in a background briefing call Monday that the proposed strategy — which has been denounced by other infectious-disease experts and has been called ‘fringe’ and ‘dangerous’ by National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins — supports what has been Trump’s policy for months.” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
- The Notion Of “Focused Protection” Has Also Found An Audience With Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. “It is unclear to what extent the maverick plan has changed policies on the ground, given that Trump has not implemented a national strategy, deferring to the states, where governors, mayors and other local officials are making most of the tricky decisions about restrictions and lockdowns. But the Focused Protection idea already has found a purchase in Florida: [The scientists] Kulldorff, Gupta and Bhattacharya participated in late September in a virtual roundtable discussion with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). DeSantis has ordered the reopening of bars and other businesses, and has drawn national attention for his aggressive posture on school reopenings.” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
But Experts Warn A Herd Immunity Strategy Is Dangerous, Unlikely To Work
- NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins: “This Is Not Mainstream Science. It’s Dangerous.” “‘What I worry about with this is it’s being presented as if it’s a major alternative view that’s held by large numbers of experts in the scientific community. That is not true,’ Collins, the NIH director, said in an interview. ‘This is a fringe component of epidemiology. This is not mainstream science. It’s dangerous. It fits into the political views of certain parts of our confused political establishment,’ he said. ‘I’m sure it will be an idea that someone can wrap themselves in as a justification for skipping wearing masks or social distancing and just doing whatever they damn well please.’” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
- University Of Florida Biostatistics Expert Natalie Dean: Allowing The Virus To Spread Among Younger, Healthier Populations Increases The Threat To Vulnerable Populations. “Allowing the virus to spread more rapidly among younger and healthier populations will increase the threat to people who are already vulnerable, noted Natalie Dean, a University of Florida biostatistics expert. ‘Is the solution then that we hide away the old people until society can safely resume for them? The solution is not very appealing to the elderly,’ she said.” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
- Gregg Gonsalves, Epidemiologist At The Yale School Of Public Health: Focused Protection “Is Not A Plan. It’s A Massacre.” “Gregg Gonsalves, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health, posted a Twitter thread Monday excoriating the Focused Protection strategy as a recipe for ‘carnage,’ writing, ‘Walking with these pied pipers into the arms of [the virus] because you think you’re not at risk or your elders are taken care of is not a plan. It’s a massacre.’” [Washington Post, 10/13/20]
- Experts Like Dr. Christopher Murray Of The University Of Washington’s Institute For Health Metrics And Evaluation Think The Notion Of “Herd Immunity” Is Very Far Off. “Many experts say ‘herd immunity’ — the point at which a disease stops spreading because nearly everyone in a population has contracted it — is still very far-off. Leading experts have concluded, using different scientific methods, that about 85 to 90 percent of the American population is still susceptible to the coronavirus… ‘The idea that herd immunity will happen at 10 or 20 percent is just nonsense,’ said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which produced the epidemic model frequently cited during White House news briefings as the epidemic hit hard in the spring.” [New York Times, 10/13/20]
- World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus On Herd Immunity: “It Is Scientifically And Ethically Problematic.” “Yet many experts warn that the idea to allow the novel coronavirus to circulate freely — also known as a ‘herd immunity’ approach — is dangerous. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has even called it ‘unethical.’ ‘Allowing a dangerous virus that we don’t fully understand to run free is simply unethical,’ Tedros said during a briefing on Monday. ‘It’s not an option.’ Tedros explained that herd immunity is a ‘concept used for vaccination,’ not pandemic control.‘Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic. It is scientifically and ethically problematic,’ Tedros said. ‘Letting the virus circulate unchecked, therefore, means allowing unnecessary infections, suffering and death.’” [Associated Press, 10/14/20]
Still, President Trump Is Enabling the Push for Herd Immunity With His Super-Spreader Rallies and Reckless Disregard for Public Health
- Dr. Fauci: Trump Decision To Resume Rallies Is “Asking For Trouble.” “The nation’s top infectious-disease expert criticized the Trump campaign’s public health practices on Monday, saying in an interview that the president’s decision to resume large-scale rallies without adequate social distancing was ‘asking for trouble.’ In an interview hours before a maskless President Trump addressed a raucous and largely bare-faced crowd at a rally in Florida, Anthony S. Fauci told CNN that it is unwise for the president to stage a campaign event that puts people in close quarters without face coverings. ‘We know that that is asking for trouble, when you do that,’ Fauci said.” [Washington Post, 10/12/20]
- On October 12, Trump Held A Rally In Sanford, Florida Where Attendees Were Not Required To Wear Masks Or Practice Social Distancing. “Like many of his recent rallies, the Florida event was held outside. But, as usual, there was no social distancing and many in the audience did not wear masks.” [NPR, 10/12/20]
[NPR, 10/12/20]
- President Trump Falsely Claimed He Was “Immune” To The Virus At An October 13 Rally In Pennsylvania, Where Cases Are Surging. “In Johnstown on Tuesday, he again declared himself ‘immune’ from the virus — a claim some experts have said cannot yet be made with certainty — and joked that he could mingle with the crowd and start kissing everybody. The president’s supporters were unfazed by his recent bout with the coronavirus. Thousands of people lined up outside the county airport hours before his arrival. Almost all wore masks on the way into the event, but many took them off upon reaching their seats, which were arranged without social distancing… Trump’s rally came as he tries to convince voters that he’s not only recovered from the virus but also is ready to move the country past the pandemic — even as coronavirus cases are increasing in Pennsylvania and scores of other states.” [The Philadelphia Inquirer, 10/13/20]
- Minnesota Health Officials Have Linked 16 Coronavirus Cases To A September 18 Trump Rally In Bemidji. “Facing a steep surge in coronavirus cases, health officials in Minnesota have connected two dozen virus cases to people who attended presidential campaign events in the past month, most of them attendees at airport rallies hosted by President Trump. State officials said 16 of the cases were tied to a Sept. 18 outdoor rally at the airport in Bemidji, where Mr. Trump addressed a packed and mostly-maskless crowd. Four of those cases were reported by people who had gone to the rally to protest Mr. Trump’s visit, Kris Ehresmann, the state’s infectious disease director, said on Monday.” [New York Times, 10/13/20]
- Three Cases Have Been Linked To A September 30 Trump Rally In Duluth, And Another Three Have Been Linked To A September 24 Pence Rally. “Three people who attended a Sept. 30 Trump rally in Duluth and three people who attended a Sept. 24 rally featuring Vice President Mike Pence at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport also tested positive for the virus, Ms. Ehresmann said. One person was present at both events.” [New York Times, 10/13/20]