The Surge Is Real: Experts Rebut Trump’s Claim That More Testing Is the Reason for the Spike in Cases, Point to States Reopening
Donald Trump and his administration are attempting to distract from their inability to control the spread of the coronavirus by falsely claiming that increased testing is the reason states are seeing spikes in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. This is a lie. State data and public health experts say otherwise: the surge in cases is because the virus is spreading, not because testing has slightly increased. Here’s a look:
The Data Paints A Clear Picture: For Many States, Increased Positive Cases Have Outpaced Increased Testing, Indicating That The Virus Is Spreading.
- In Six States, The Seven Day Average Of New Cases Has Increased Since May 31 While The Average Numbers Of Daily Tests Being Conducted Has Declined. “In six states — Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wyoming — the seven-day average of new cases has increased since May 31 while the average number of daily tests being conducted has declined, according to data collected by the COVID Tracking Project and the New York Times. In 14 other states, the rate of new cases is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests.” [Washington Post, 6/15/20]
- In At Least Fourteen States, Positive Cases Have Outstripped The Average Number Of Tests That Had Been Administered — Indicating That Increases In Cases Were Not The Result Of More Testing. “In fact, seven-day averages in several states with coronavirus outbreaks have increased since May 31, and in at least 14 states, positive cases have outstripped the average number of tests that have been administered, according to an analysis of data collected by The New York Times. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that coronavirus hospitalizations have decreased nationally, though positive cases have increased and the number of deaths attributed to the disease caused by the coronavirus, Covid-19, could increase as more data becomes available.” [New York Times, 6/15/20]
- Epidemiologists Said That Even Taking Into Account A Rise In Testing, The Increase In Confirmed Cases In Sun Belt States Suggested Increased Transmissions. “But epidemiologists said that even taking into account a rise in testing, the increase in confirmed cases in Sun Belt states suggested increased transmissions. Other measures, such as the percentage of positive tests and hospitalizations, reflect that worsening outlook. In Florida more than 4.5 percent of those who tested between May 31 and June 6 had the virus, compared with about 2.3 percent of people who sought tests in mid-May. Earlier in the pandemic, the percent of people testing positive in Florida was higher, but that was during a period when testing was far more limited. Similar rates in Arizona and Texas have also risen in recent weeks.” [New York Times, 6/14/20]
- Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb: “Some States Showing Rising New Covid Cases And Rising Positivity Rates, Which Is A Concerning Trend Suggestive Of Expanding Outbreaks.” “Some states showing rising new Covid cases and rising positivity rates, which is a concerning trend suggestive of expanding outbreaks.” [Twitter, Scott Gottlieb, 6/15/20]
- Dr. Anthony Fauci Said Of Increasing Positive Test Rates: “Once You See That The Percentage Is Higher, Then You’ve Really Got To Be Careful, Because Then You Really Are Seeing Additional Infections That You Weren’t Seeing Before.” “Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, said Friday in an interview with ABC News that it was important to look both at case numbers and the percentage of positive tests to understand whether upticks in cases reflected broader transmission in American cities. ‘If you test more, you will likely pick up more infections,’ Dr. Fauci said. He added, ‘Once you see that the percentage is higher, then you’ve really got to be careful, because then you really are seeing additional infections that you weren’t seeing before.’” [New York Times, 6/14/20]
State Officials & Public Health Experts Agree: Coronavirus Spikes Are The Result Of The Virus Spreading, Not More Testing.
- UAB Health Doctor Jodie Dionne-Odom: “The Number Of Tests In Alabama Has Held Steady At About 5,000 A Day, So The Increase In Cases In Not Tied To A Spike In Testing.” “‘We are not surprisingly seeing cases go up as we open,’ Dionne-Odom said. ‘There is clearly a relationship between reopening and the number of cases we are seeing right now.’… The number of tests in Alabama has held steady at about 5,000 a day, Dionne-Odom said. So the increase in cases in not tied to a spike in testing.” [Alabama Local News, 6/10/20]
- Washington Regional Medical System Chief Operating Officer Birch Wright: “We Are Not Seeing More Hospitalizations Simply Because More Testing Is Being Done.” “Northwest Arkansas’ surge in covid-19 cases is serious and definitely not just an increase in detected cases because of more testing, the chief operating officer of Washington Regional Medical System said Wednesday. ‘Washington Regional views this as a serious public health emergency,’ says the statement from Birch G. Wright, chief operating officer and administrator for Washington Regional. ‘It is important for our community to understand that we are not seeing more hospitalizations simply because more testing is being done,’ he said. ‘We are seeing more hospitalizations because more people in our area are being infected with the virus.’” [Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 6/11/20]
- Utah COVID-19 Community Task Force: “We’ve Seen A Spike In COVID-19 cases. It’s Not Explained By More Testing Or Just One Outbreak.” “We’ve seen a spike in COVID-19 cases. It’s not explained by more testing or just one outbreak. Eased restrictions don’t cause increased cases alone–it’s our actions that cause COVID-19 to spread. Keep your distance and wear a mask in public, and stay home if you’re sick.” [Twitter, Utah COVID-19 Community Task Force, 6/9/20]
- The Kansas City, Missouri Health Department Said The City’s Increasing Coronavirus Numbers Were Due To Both Increased Testing And Additional Outbreaks. “In a statement this week, the health department said the increasing numbers were due to both increased testing and additional outbreaks. Kansas City now has a total of 1,581 confirmed cases. Other health officials caution that recent spikes and upticks do not, in fact, represent a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus spread but merely a continuation of the first wave that hit the U.S. in the spring.” [KCUR, 6/12/20]
- Maricopa County Public Health Spokeswoman Sonia Singh: “It’s Not Just More Testing, But An Increased Spread.” “A county health official in Phoenix said the rapid increase in new cases is causing alarm. ‘We’re getting reports of almost 600 cases per day, compared with almost 200 cases per day two weeks ago,’ Maricopa County Public Health spokeswoman Sonia Singh said Wednesday. ‘We know it’s not just more testing, but an increased spread.’” [Las Vegas Review-Journal, 6/12/20]
- Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness Director Dr. Irwin Redlener: “The Surge Numbers Are Real… To Deny The Fact That We’re Having An Ongoing Pandemic With Continued Spread Is Contrary To All Evidence.” “COVID-19 cases are on the rise in 21 states, according to data compiled by The New York Times. There is some indication that expanded testing is catching more cases, but public health experts say that in reality, the surges are due to states’ reopening and people’s relaxing their social distancing protocols. ‘The surge numbers are real,’ said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness, who is a public health analyst for NBC News and MSNBC. He said more testing will inevitably capture more positive tests, ‘but to deny the fact that we’re having an ongoing pandemic with continued spread is contrary to all evidence that we have and everything that we know about the behavior of the virus.’” [NBC News, 6/10/20]
- Pulmonologist And Global Health Policy Expert Dr. Vin Gupta Emphasized That Cases Were Surging In States Where The Population Was Moving Around More. “Dr. Vin Gupta, a pulmonologist and global health policy expert who is an NBC News and MSNBC contributor, said the surges are tied to people moving around more. ‘The data that I’ve seen from Verizon and even Apple and Google suggest that people are moving a lot in states like California and Arizona and North Carolina, and those happen to be three of the six states where you’re seeing the biggest spike of cases,’ he told NBC News.” [NBC News, 6/10/20]
- Alabama Doctor Jeanne Marrazzo Points To Positive Test Rates As An Indicator Of Spreading Cases. “Doctor Jeanne Marrazzo says case numbers are rising and it is not because of more testing. She says the percentage of those testing positive out of all that are tested is rising. ‘If you look at the positivity in the last fourteen days it’s about eight percent but if you move that up a little bit and just look at the last seven days the positivity is now close to thirteen percent,’ says Jeanne Marrazzo, M.D., MPH: Division Director of UAB’s Division of Infectious Diseases.” [WHNT, 6/15/20]