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Press Release

Infections Dramatically Accelerate; Fauci Warns Current Daily Caseload Is “No Place to Be”

By October 5, 2020No Comments

Only Three States Reporting Decreasing Infections

Hospitalizations Rising Again in US

Deaths Remain Elevated at 700 Lives Lost Daily

Researchers Project 2,900 Daily Deaths by December

As the word watched President Trump fall ill with a virus he has downplayed for months, the pandemic was wreaking havoc across the United States. Cases are spiking in at least 21 states, nine reporting record increases since the pandemic began. Hospitalizations have begun to tick upward for the first time since July, while experts warn that a deadly fall and winter await. 

Expert Projections

Dr. Anthony Fauci: “I’m Actually Disturbed And Concerned About The Fact That Our Baseline Of Infections Is Still Stuck At 40,000 Cases A Day.” 

  • “Fauci to CNN: ‘I’m actually disturbed and concerned about the fact that our baseline of infections is still stuck at 40,000 cases a day. That’s no place to be.’” [Twitter, @josh_wingrove, 10/5/20]

Researchers Project That COVID-19 Could Kill Nearly 3,000 Americans A Day In December.

  • “We’re nowhere near herd immunity, and a vaccine probably won’t be publicly available until the middle of 2021. Until then, the daily US death toll is expected to steadily climb through the end of this year, reaching more than 2,900 US deaths a day by December 27, according to the IHME’s projections Monday. There are two main reasons for that projected surge, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. ‘First, as case counts have come down in some states, we tend to see that people become less careful, they tend to have more contact,’ he said. ‘But then the most important effect is the seasonality of the virus — that people go indoors, transmission happens more. That’s why our model shows the huge surge that we really expect to take off in October and accelerate in November in December.’”

National Trends

Only Three States Are Currently Reporting Declines In New Infections Compared To Last Week.

  • “Only three US states are reporting a decline in new Covid-19 cases compared to last week, as the country hit its highest daily rate of new cases in almost two months. As of Saturday night, new cases were down in Texas, Missouri and South Carolina.” [CNN, 10/4/20]

Twenty-One States Are Reporting Increasing Infections. 

  • “The climbing coronavirus count comes as the President joined the more than 7.3 million people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in the US, a sobering reminder of the virus’ reach as health experts urge continued vigilance during the fall and winter months. The 21 states reporting a rise in new cases are Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.”  [CNN, 10/4/20]

Nine States Have Reported Record Increases In New Infections Over The Last Seven Days. 

  • “Nine U.S. states have reported record increases in COVID-19 cases over the last seven days, mostly in the upper Midwest and West where chilly weather is forcing more activities indoors… On Saturday alone, four states – Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin – saw record increases in new cases and nationally nearly 49,000 new infections were reported, the highest for a Saturday in seven weeks, according to a Reuters analysis. Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Wyoming also set new records for cases last week.” [Reuters, 10/4/20]

On October 3, Six States Reached A Record High For Covid-19 Hospitalizations.

  • “Six states reached record high Covid-19 hospitalizations, based on a weekly average to smooth out the reporting, as of Friday, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, an independent volunteer organization launched by journalists at The Atlantic. Most of the states are based in the Midwest, including Missouri, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota.” [CNBC, 10/3/20]

Hospitalizations Rose 2.4 Percent In The Past Week From The Previous Week, The First Increase Since July.

  • “According to the Covid Tracking Project, the average number of people hospitalized for coronavirus in a week rose recently for the first time since July. This past week saw an average of about 30,000 hospitalized — a rise of 2.4% from the previous week, and the first jump after eight weeks of decline, CTP reported.” [CNN, 10/4/20]

During The Last Week Of September, 21 States Saw Hospitalization Rise By At Least 10 Percent.

  • “In the week ending on the last day of September, 21 states saw hospitalizations rise by at least 10%: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.” [Washington Examiner, 10/5/20]

Deaths, The Lagging Indicator, Are Already High At Roughly 700 Lives Lost Daily. 

  • “The United States is reporting 42,600 new cases and 700 deaths on average each day, compared with 35,000 cases and 800 deaths in mid-September. Deaths are a lagging indicator and tend to rise several weeks after cases increase.”  [Reuters, 10/4/20]

State by State

Wisconsin, Indiana, Montana And Wyoming Added More Cases In The Last Week Than During Any Other Seven-Day Stretch Of The Pandemic.

  • “Four states — Wisconsin, Indiana, Montana and Wyoming — have added more cases in the last week than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic.” [New York Times, 10/5/20]

Kentucky Last Week Reported Its Highest Ever Weekly Total Of New Coronavirus Infections.

  • “Kentucky marked its highest one-week total of Coronavirus cases last week with 6,126. Governor Andy Beshear announced an additional 616 cases Sunday which brought the state’s total to 72,617 cases in the last seven months.” [WUKY, 10/5/20]

Kentucky Has Seen COVID-19 Hospitalizations Increase By 20 Percent Over The Last Two Weeks.

  • “Kentucky is the first Southern state to report a record increase in cases in several weeks. Governor Andy Beshear said last week was the highest number of cases the state has seen since the pandemic started. State health experts have not pinpointed the reason for the rise but point to fatigue with COVID-19 precautions and students returning to schools and colleges. Over the last two weeks, Kentucky has reported nearly 11,000 new cases and has seen hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients rise by 20%.”  [Reuters, 10/4/20]

77 Percent Of ICU Beds In Michigan Are Currently Occupied.

  • “In Michigan, 77% of ICU beds are currently occupied. John Karasinski, the communications director at the Michigan Health and Hospital Association, noted another cause in his state. ‘The biggest concern right now is the significant growth in cases in northern Michigan, which seem largely tied to university-related spread,’ he said. ‘That region has fewer hospitals and beds available, and we urge the public in those areas to be extra vigilant in preventing COVID-19.’” [Washington Examiner, 10/5/20]

As Of October 3, Missouri Had Reported Twelve Consecutive Days Of Increasing Hospitalizations.

  • “Missouri’s COVID-19 hospitalizations have been on a steady increase, breaking new records for 12 days in a row reaching 1,163 Saturday, according to the state’s health department.  The state recently updated its coronavirus dashboard and adjusted its data for hospitalizations and cases and deaths among ages groups. According to the new data set, Missouri had zero days in August with more than 1,000 patients in hospitals across the state. This is compared to 15 days in September with more than 1,000 COVID-19-related hospitalizations.” [KMOV, 10/3/20]

Montana Set Records For Coronavirus Case Counts For 16 Straight Days.

  • “Places west of the Mississippi River are also struggling. Montana has set highs in case counts for 16 straight days. Kansas, Nebraska and Utah are reporting spikes in infections. And although deaths and hospitalizations have dropped in recent weeks in populous states such as California and Florida, that progress has been offset by increased transmission elsewhere.” [Washington Post, 10/2/20]

On October 2, New York Reported Its Highest One-Day Coronavirus Case Count Since May 28.

  • “The coronavirus map shows flare-ups coast to coast and from the Canadian to the Mexican border. Brooklyn is once again dealing with a spike in cases, and the state of New York on Friday reported its highest one-day case count since May 28.” [Washington Post, 10/2/20]

On October 4, Utah Reported A Test Positivity Rate Of 17 Percent, As Nearly 1000 Cases Are Reported Daily. 

  • Utah health officials confirmed another large increase in new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, with 1,393. The cases were confirmed out of 8,214 reported tests, with a 17% positive rate, according to the Utah Department of Health. The rolling seven-day average for new cases is now 998 per day, and the average positive test rate is 13.7%. Sunday also marks the second-highest daily increase in cases the state has seen. The highest occurred on Sept. 25, when 1,411 were confirmed.” [Deseret News, 10/4/20]

On October 3, Wisconsin Again Set A Single-Day Record For COVID-19 Cases — Reporting Nearly 3000 Positive Tests.

  • “Wisconsin health officials say the state set a single-day record for COVID-19 cases with nearly 2,900 positive tests. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services on Saturday reported a 20.5% positivity rate from 14,084 tests, or 2,982 positive cases, that were processed in the last day. The previous record for new cases in a single day came on Thursday, with 2,887.” [Associated Press, 10/4/20]

In Wisconsin And Minnesota, ICU Beds Are Nearing Capacity.  

  • “Yet, some are seeing hospitalizations increase to the point that hospital capacity may soon be a serious concern. For example, Wisconsin has 1,475 intensive care unit beds, but only 217, about 15%, are available. From early May until mid-September, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds fluctuated between 65 and 144. It now stands at 208, more than double the number of two weeks ago. About 87% of the 1,222 ICU beds in Minnesota are occupied. Hospitals in the state may soon have to make use of 1,000 surge beds that can be ready for COVID-19 patients in 24 to 72 hours. Minnesota and Wisconsin saw their hospitalizations increase 12% and 34%, respectively, over the last week.” [Washington Examiner, 10/5/20]