As Joe Biden Takes His Oath of Office, Donald Trump Leaves Behind a Chaotic Legacy: a Worsening Pandemic, Disastrous Vaccine Distribution, and Economic Disaster

United States Crosses Thresholds of 24 Million Cases and 400,000 Deaths as Biden Prepares to Take Office

January on Track to be Pandemic’s Deadliest Month; Incoming CDC Director Expects Half a Million American Deaths by Mid-February

Vaccine Distribution in Chaos Amid Absence of Federal Leadership

United States Still Down 10 Million Jobs as Economic Recovery Falters

Biden Plans Robust Pandemic Response Including Economic Relief, Centralized Vaccine Distribution, Major Investments in Public Health; Even So, Experts Warn It’s a Long Road to Recovery

Since its first coronavirus case was identified almost a year ago, the United States, led by Donald Trump, has been unique in its failed pandemic response — reporting more than 24 million cases and 400,000 deaths to the virus, as the nation’s hospital system has been chronically overwhelmed by unrelenting waves of patients.  

It never had to be that bad, but Donald Trump abdicated all responsibility for containing the crisis. At every turn, he downplayed the threat despite knowing how dangerous it was,  undermined the experts, attacked the science, rushed to reopen states, ridiculed masks, and refused to take decisive action to save American lives. His failures manifested in raging viral spread, PPE shortages, testing chaos, an economic catastrophe, and now, disastrous vaccine distribution during the pandemic’s most dangerous phase.

President-elect Biden will inherit an unmitigated disaster. But fortunately, the incoming Biden Administration’s demonstrated reliance on experts and the facts, as well as its commitment to a robust federal strategy, will help navigate the United States out of this crisis. Still, it will take months to clean up the wreckage left in the wake of the Trump presidency, and Americans have a long road to recovery. 

Donald Trump’s Uniquely Incompetent Coronavirus Response Has Created a Catastrophe

• The Coronavirus Crisis Is The Worst It’s Ever Been As The United States Reports 24 Million Cases And 400,000 Deaths. The coronavirus crisis is the worst it’s ever been. The United States has now reported more than 24 million cases of the virus, identifying nearly 250,000 new infections daily last week. The number of those hospitalized across the country has hovered between 120,000 and 130,000, while more 23,000 patients have required treatment in ICUs. Last week, the United States also began to report over 4,000 fatalities in a single day, as the death toll for the crisis crosses 400,000 lives lost.
  
• January Is Shaping Up To Be The Pandemic’s Deadliest Month As Daily Deaths Increase By More Than 20 Percent In Just Two Weeks. Nearly 40,000 people in the United States lost their lives in the first two weeks of January alone, while a CDC forecast suggests that as many as 90,000 more Americans could die from COVID-19 over the next three weeks. According to the New York Times, daily deaths in the United States have increased by 21 percent over the last two weeks.
  
• More Contagious Variants Of The Virus Are Making Their Way Through The US, Threatening Accelerated Spread Amid An Already-Disastrous Surge. More contagious variants of the virus have been identified in the United States. The CDC is warning that one variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, could become the dominant strain in the United States by March. Research suggests that this variant could be as much as 50 percent more transmissible than other forms of the virus. Experts are warning that unless steps are taken to mitigate the spread of the new variant, the already overworked hospitals in the United States will have to confront the reality of another surge on top of a surge.
  
• Experts Project That Things Can Still Get Worse As The Incoming CDC Director Forecasts Half A Million Deaths By Mid-February. Experts are predicting that things can still get worse. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the incoming Director of the CDC, has warned that the coronavirus death toll in the United States could reach 500,000 by the middle of February, while state health officials like Arizona’s Joe K. Gerald project that without policy measures to mitigate the spread of the virus, we will continue to “set new records for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.” Dr. Michael Osterholm of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota warned that new variants could “substantially increase the number of cases,” and said that he worries “desperately in the next six to 12 weeks we’re going to see a situation with this pandemic unlike anything we’ve seen yet to date.”

The Trump Administration’s Vaccine Distribution Plan — Or Lack Thereof — Created Chaos for States During a Deadly Surge

• Donald Trump Left Vaccine Planning Entirely To The States, Creating Supply Shortages, Communication Problems, Overwhelmed Sign-Ups, And A Slow Roll-Out. The Trump Administration has largely abandoned state efforts to get shots in arms, leaving the planning and coordination of vaccine distribution to underfunded, overburdened state and local health departments. Not only are public health agencies often underfunded; in some places they don’t exist at all — pushing the responsibility for these efforts back to states, which often rely on hospitals that are not designed to act as public health agents. 
  
  • While federal funds to facilitate the vaccine distribution effort were delayed by partisan politics, states needed to secure trucks, storage facilities, and manpower to transport doses to the places where they would actually be administered. Many ultimately confronted problems with the storage, transport, and administration of vaccine doses: supplies like dry ice and vaccine vials have been hard to come by, and there is little available staff to administer the shots.
    
  • The vacuum left by the Trump Administration also created rampant miscommunication. The mechanics for vaccine administration vary so widely from county to county that local systems are being overwhelmed with requests for information and sign-ups. In the past, the federal government might have set up emergency communication systems to help local governments broadcast information — but with no such system in place, and with localities stretched thin by the crisis — Americans are turning to unreliable sources instead.
    
• The Trump Administration Turned Down An Offer From Pfizer To Secure Between 100 Million And 500 Million Additional Doses Of The Vaccine, And Reserved Fewer Doses Per Capita Than 31 Other Countries. In July, the Trump Administration turned down an offer to secure between 100 million and 500 million additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine, even as they were warned by Pfizer officials that demand could ultimately outstrip supply. The deal would have relied on the vaccine being found both safe and effective.  As of December, 31 countries had reserved more vaccine doses per capita than the United States. Experts have warned that Trump’s failure to secure more doses could bring the United States to a vaccine cliff this spring.
  
• Before The Vaccine Was Even Approved, States Were Clamoring For Distribution Guidance From The Federal Government — But The Trump Administration Delayed Providing Information For Months. The Trump Administration waited for months to approve a vaccine distribution plan, even as states clamored for guidance so that they could prepare for the mass-vaccination campaign. Even though the CDC proposed guidelines as early as June, Operation Warp Speed did not adopt a plan until August, and then held onto the playbook for two more weeks before distributing it to states.
  
• As States Begged For $8 Billion In Funding To Distribute The Vaccine, Donald Trump And Senate Republicans Obstructed A Coronavirus Relief Bill. The attempts by President Trump and Senate Republicans to obstruct a coronavirus relief bill had major implications for states that were preparing for the distribution of a vaccine. Until a bill passed in late December, states had been allocated just $340 million to distribute vaccine doses. Meanwhile, experts and local officials made clear that the states needed more than $8 billion for the herculean effort. The fact that it took so long for Congress to pass relief that included additional funding for the vaccine effort meant that new funds would arrive long after local health departments — stressed by rising caseloads and overburdened with testing and tracing efforts — had to begin administering vaccines.
  
• States Received Shifting Projections For How Many Doses Of Vaccine They Would Receive, Some Seeing Their Shipments Slashed By As Much As 40 Percent. As states were preparing to distribute the vaccine, they received shifting projections from the federal government about how many doses they would receive. Some states saw their expected allotments of the Pfizer vaccine slashed by as much as 40 percent. The abrupt changes jeopardized states’ abilities to prepare effectively. In late December, at least fourteen states received fewer doses than they had expected. Around the same time, Pfizer reported that millions of doses were sitting in their warehouses.
  
• The Trump Administration Last Week Announced A Slew Of Changes To The Distribution Process That Threaten To Derail State Efforts — Including Promising Additional Shipments That Didn’t Exist. At the beginning of last week, the Trump Administration announced a slew of changes to the vaccine distribution process that threatened to create even more chaos for states.
  
  • The Administration widened eligibility for the vaccine to all those 65 and older with high-risk conditions, and decided to send more doses to states that were administering the vaccine at a faster pace, thereby punishing states that were moving more slowly.
    
  • The Trump Administration also promised to release doses that had been held in reserve. But even as the Administration promised to provide states with more doses, their supply was already exhausted: the reserve of doses that Donald Trump promised to release didn’t even exist.
    
  • The initial changes promised to create new obstacles for states — experts warned that widening eligibility would stress sign-up systems, that the new rules could privilege the wealthy or well-connected, and that states would need more material support to deal with the flood of supply — but the realization that there were no additional shipments en route to states obliterated hopes of local officials to widen their pool of recipients, and resulted in the cancellation of vaccine appointments.
    
• Donald Trump’s Failure To Contain The Virus And Slow Its Spread Has Meant That Frontline Workers Who Should Be Receiving And Administering Shots Are Instead Combatting An Unending Surge Of Coronavirus Patients. As states began distributing the vaccine, hospitals and frontline workers were combatting the worst-ever surge of the pandemic — meaning that the people who would usually be responsible for putting shots in arms were instead treating a flood of patients. In the week ending January 15, the United States was averaging almost 250,000 new infections daily as roughly 130,000 people were being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals across the country, nearly 24,000 of them in ICUs. It never had to be that bad — but after Donald Trump spent the entirety of the pandemic mocking safety measures like masks, undercutting the experts, and attacking the science, the pandemic got so out of control that the frontline heroes that should be administering and receiving vaccines are instead working overtime to support an unending wave of patients.
  
• Donald Trump’s Vaccine Failures Have Meant That The United States Is Dreadfully Behind In Vaccinating Its Population. The results of Donald Trump’s vaccine failures have been devastating. The administration greatly missed its own forecast of 20 million shots by the end of 2020, administering just a fraction of that number by January 1.
  
  • In addition to the issues with funding, communication, and logistics engendered by the Trump Administration’s negligence, is a deep sense of mistrust among millions of Americans. After Trump spent months attacking science, and after he allowed the Payroll Protection Program to bankroll anti-vaccine initiatives, as many as 40 percent of Americans report that they will probably not get the vaccine when it becomes available to them.
    
  • Meanwhile, millions of doses are languishing on pharmacy shelves thanks to the Trump Administration’s lack of leadership. An NBC News analysis at the end of December found that it would take the United States ten years to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity at the December pace.

Donald Trump’s Mismanagement of the Coronavirus Crisis Created an Economic Disaster of Historic Proportions

• The Mismanagement Of The Coronavirus Crisis Has Created A Major Economic Disaster. President-Elect Biden will inherit a major economic disaster thanks to President Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic.
  
  • Ten months into this crisis, almost 19 million Americans continue to collect some form of unemployment benefit. Weekly initial unemployment claims are still higher than at any point during the Great Recession, with more than 1.4 million Americans filing for unemployment aid on a non seasonally-adjusted basis just last week.
    
  • Roughly seventy million  Americans — about 40 percent of the nation’s labor force — have filed for unemployment since the pandemic began. With about 10 million jobs to recover, the United States is still shedding positions: the economy lost 140,000 jobs in December as coronavirus cases surged, and Oxxford Information Technology projects that the United States has lost four million businesses during this crisis. 

• Certain Sectors Have Been Especially Hard Hit By Donald Trump’s Incompetence. Among the sectors hardest hit by this crisis are the leisure and hospitality industries, which shed 498,000 jobs in December as an aggressive acceleration in coronavirus cases forced hotels and restaurants to scale back operations.  Also hard hit are state and local governments: 1.3 million jobs have been cut from local governments since March, including 51,000 job cuts in December even as governments began distributing the coronavirus vaccine. According to the Guardian, state and local government employment is at its lowest since 2001, as states attempt to slim their budgets amid the unexpected cost of the pandemic and the refusal of Republican lawmakers to provide them with flexible funding.
  
• The Economic Crisis That Has Accompanied The Pandemic Is The Most Unequal In Modern American History. The recession is thought to be the most unequal in modern US history, as heavy job losses and business closures disproportionately impact women and people of color.
  
  • The 140,000 jobs lost by the US economy were exclusively among women, driven by job losses among Black women and Latinas, whose December unemployment rates were 8.4 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively. Women are down 5.4 million jobs since February, compared to 4.4 million for men.
    
  • Women are also increasingly leaving the workforce: 154,000 Black women left the workforce in December, marking the largest drop in their employment since the beginning of the pandemic. According to NPR, Latina women left the workforce at three times the rate of white women and at four times the rate of Black women in September. The 19th reports that working mothers have reduced their work hours four to five times more than fathers to care for children during the pandemic.
    
  • Meanwhile, business closures have disproportionately impacted business-owners of color.  Research conducted at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 41 percent of Black-owned businesses — roughly 440,000 enterprises — closed by July,  while roughly 233,000 Asian-owned small businesses closed between February and April, representing a decline of 28 percent. In contrast, non-Hispanic white-owned small businesses declined by only 17 percent in the same time period.
    
  • More than eight million people in the United States have slipped into poverty since the summer, rising the most among Black Americans and those who have a high school degree or less. 

Biden Has Widely-Praised Plans to Combat the Crisis, But Experts Still Warn That It Will Be a Long Road to Recovery

Biden’s Coronavirus Rescue Plan

• The Biden Administration Intends To Combat The Pandemic By Investing In Vaccines, Diagnostics, And Resources. The Biden Administration’s American Rescue Plan will combat the pandemic through major investments in public health, including $20 billion to bolster a national vaccination program, $50 billion to expand testing (including purchasing rapid tests, expanding lab capacity, and helping schools implement regular testing protocols), $30 billion for the Disaster Relief Fund to fortify supplies of protective gear, as well as funding to hire 100,000 public health workers.
  

• Biden’s American Rescue Plan Protects The Health And Economic Wellness Of American Workers And Families. Key aspects of Biden’s American Rescue plan are designed to support the millions of Americans who have suffered the economic fallout from the pandemic. The plan includes increasing direct payments to working families from $600 to $2,000 per person, including adult dependents; extending and expanding unemployment insurance by providing $400 per week federal supplement; and raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour. The plan would also provide emergency paid leave to 106 million Americans.
  

• The Plan Provides For The Health Of Americans Through Expanded Access To Care And Services. Between two and three million Americans lost their employer-sponsored health coverage during the pandemic. President-elect Biden is now calling on Congress to subsidize COBRA through the end of September, and to lower health insurance premiums. Biden also wants to invest $4 billion to help expand access to mental health services, and allocate $20 billion to help meet the health care needs of America’s veterans.
  

• Biden Will Protect America’s Workers From COVID-19 Through OSHA. Biden plans to authorize the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to issue a COVID-19 protection standard that covers a broad set of workers, and to provide additional funding for OSHA enforcement and grant funding to keep vulnerable workers healthy and safe from COVID-19.
  
• Biden’s Plan Will Provide Housing And Food Security To Safeguard America’s Families From The Economic Impact Of COVID-19. The American Rescue Plan extends eviction and foreclosure moratoriums until September 30, 2021, while providing an additional $25 billion in assistance to support low-income renters. It also allocates $5 billion to help states and localities secure housing for people experiencing or at risk of homelessnes. To improve food security, the plan extends the 15 percent SNAP benefit increase, and invests $3 billion in WIC to help women, infants and children access high-quality nutritious foods. 
• Biden Will Provide Critical Support For Struggling Communities. The American Rescue Plan designates $440 billion in critical support for struggling communities, and $130 billion to help schools reopen safely. Funding for communities includes aid to support small businesses, educators, transit workers, and first responders, and $350 billion in emergency funding for state, local, and territorial governments. In addition to the $130 billion to help schools safely reopen, the plan allocates $35 billion to help institutions of higher education to implement public health protocols and execute distance learning plans, and expands access to affordable child care by creating a $25 billion emergency stabilization fund for childcare providers, providing an additional $15 billion in funding through the Child Care Development Block Grant program, and increasing tax credits to help cover the cost of child care.
  

• Biden’s American Rescue Plan Has Received Accolades From Varied Interest Groups, Including The US Chamber Of Commerce And Advocacy Organizations. President-elect Biden’s robust, multi-pronged rescue package strategically addresses the sweeping challenges facing the United States, and has received due praise and recognition from several groups. The US Chamber of Commerce “applaud[ed] the President-elect’s focus on vaccinations and on economic sectors and families that continue to suffer as the pandemic rages on,” while the Columbia Center on Poverty and Social Policy projected that the plan could “cut child poverty in half in 2021.” Interest groups like the Independent Restaurant Coalition expressed optimism that “the new administration and Congress can quickly work together to protect local restaurants and bars from permanently closing with a new stimulus package,” while advocacy group the First Five Years Fund was grateful for the plan’s inclusion of $40 billion for child care providers, among other provisions.
  

Biden’s Vaccine Distribution Plan

• President-Elect Biden Is Calling For $20 Billion To Build A National Vaccine Program That Will Include Supporting Community Vaccine Centers And Building Federal Sites. President-elect Biden’s American Rescue Plan would scale up the federal government’s role in vaccine distribution by launching community vaccination centers across the country, and deploying mobile units to remote areas to ensure that vaccines are physically accessible for all Americans. The Biden Administration will also partner with state and local health providers, including primary care providers, to ensure that they have the resources to vaccinate the communities they serve. To guarantee that there are no out-of-pocket costs and that there is equity in the distribution process, Biden will target resources to hard-hit communities through partnerships with state, local, and community-based organizations.
  
• The Biden Administration Will Expand Access To Vaccines In Pharmacies, And Partner With Federally Qualified Health Centers To Ensure They Can Directly Access Vaccine Supplies. Beyond partnering with pharmacies like Walgreens and CVS, President-elect Biden will also build vaccine capacity at independent pharmacies. Independent, or “mom-and-pop,” pharmacies have been essential to the successful vaccine campaign in West Virginia, which has put more vaccines in arms per capita than any other state — suggesting Biden’s efforts to build capacity in these settings will greatly improve national distribution. Biden will also launch a program to ensure that Federally Qualified Health Centers can directly access vaccine supply. FQHCs service one in 11 people nationwide, including many of whom are people of color or live in rural communities. This partnership will help ensure that these communities are protected. 
• The Biden Administration Will Fully Reimburse States That Deploy The National Guard And Hire 100,000 Public Health Workers To Facilitate The Vaccine Distribution Process. The Biden vaccine plan encourages states to deploy the National Guard to aid vaccine distribution efforts by promising to fully reimburse states for the cost of the effort, as well as for FEMA emergency costs. Biden also plans to shore up the nation’s public health system by hiring 100,000 new public health workers to encourage Americans to get vaccinated, and to undertake contact tracing responsibilities. Over time, these workers would transition into community health roles. 
• The Biden Administration Will Maximize The Manufacturing Of Vaccine And Vaccine Supplies, Including Through The Use Of The Defense Production Act. One of the United States’ biggest challenges in vaccine distribution is that of supply: states are experiencing shortages of items critical to vaccinating Americans, like dry ice, glass vials, and materials for the doses themselves. Donald Trump declined the opportunity to secure more doses of the Pfizer vaccine for Americans, and the government’s reserve supply of vaccine has reportedly already been distributed. Biden will address these problems by maximizing the manufacturing of vaccine and vaccine supplies, prioritizing “glass vials, stoppers, syringes, needles, and the ‘fill and finish’ capacity to package vaccine into vials”. Biden will utilize the Defense Production Act to achieve this end. 
  • President-Elect Biden’s Plan Calls For More People To Be Vaccinated, Including Those 65 And Older And Essential Workers. To overcome the slow roll-out of the vaccine, Biden will expand vaccination eligibility to individuals 65 and older, as well as to frontline workers. Though states are concerned that expanding eligibility could cause them to exhaust their supplies, Biden’s promise to maximize the manufacturing of vaccine materials will ensure that supply meets demand. Under Biden’s plan, frontline workers include people like teachers, first responders, and grocery store employees.
    

• Biden Will Enhance Communication With States And Americans. While the Trump Administration’s failure to communicate effectively with states — including changing dose allocations — has created chaos, the incoming Biden administration plans to provide states with regular updates about supply delivery. The Biden Administration is also calling for an education and awareness initiative, including paid media, to build public confidence in the vaccine. 
  
• Jason Schwartz, Assistant Professor Of Public Health At Yale University: “The Biden Administration… Intend[s] To Have A Far More Active And Engaged Role In Supporting This Vaccination Effort.” “‘The design so far of this vaccination rollout was so decentralized that it was basically, ship vaccines to each state, you tell us where to ship them, give us the mailing addresses and you take it from there,’ [Jason] Schwartz said. ‘One thing we’ve seen already from the incoming Biden administration is they intend to have a far more active and engaged role in supporting this vaccination effort, coordinating it, leading it.’” [USA Today, 1/17/21]
  
• The Infections Diseases Society Of American And Its HIV Medicine Association “Strongly Support” The Biden Administration’s Vaccine Plan. “The Infectious Diseases Society of America and its HIV Medicine Association strongly support the incoming Administration’s request for $400 billion to strengthen our pandemic response and safely reopen schools. That request includes $20 billion for the strategy to accelerate vaccine administration and uptake across the country that was outlined by President-elect Biden today. The strategy brings together a coordinated, collaborative, cross-governmental and cross-sectoral approach that will be vital to ending the impacts of COVID-19 in the United States. As organizations representing over 12,000 physicians, scientists, public health experts and other health care professionals specializing in infectious diseases and HIV, IDSA and HIVMA welcome this strategy.”  [IDSA, 1/15/21]

Experts on the Pandemic and Vaccine Distribution

• Former CDC Director Tom Frieden: “Months And Months Of Dysfunctional Management… Doesn’t Get Fixed Overnight.” “President-elect Joe Biden is promising to administer 100 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine in his first 100 days — but some of his top advisers are already warning that the early days of that effort are going to be rocky… The challenges facing the Biden team are numerous. States have still not received billions of dollars in supplemental funding appropriated by Congress, hospitals and state health departments are warning of staffing shortages, and vaccination appointment scheduling systems across the country are crashing daily. The Biden team will also have to contend with massive, last-minute changes to the existing vaccine rollout that the Trump administration is throwing out in its final days. ‘What we’re dealing with is months and months of dysfunctional management, and that doesn’t get fixed overnight,’ said Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. ‘It’s a bold goal … but I think it’s an achievable one.’” [Stat, 1/14/21]
• The Trump Administration’s Refusal To Ensure A Smooth Transition Of Power Will Create Vaccine Stumbles “Out Of The Gate” For The Biden Administration. “It was not until [last] week that Biden officials were allowed to attend meetings of Operation Warp Speed, the administration’s initiative to accelerate vaccine development and distribution. They were also not invited to the two Warp Speed sessions this weekend when Trump officials decided on sweeping changes to try to speed up the sluggish vaccine rollout… The dearth of coordination ‘means we are stumbling out of the gate with the vaccine,’ said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University. ‘We are failing at a government level on distribution because there is no game plan. There is a chaotic Trump one and a learning-curve Biden one.’” [Washington Post, 1/14/21]
  
• Dr. John Swartzberg, A Professor Emeritus Of Infectious Diseases At The University Of California-Berkeley, Projects A “Horrific” Rest Of January. “[Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of infectious diseases at the University of California-Berkeley] predicted a ‘horrific’ rest of January followed by several ups and downs in cases, deaths and hospitalizations throughout February before a gradual leveling off by mid-March and continued improvement after that. He doesn’t envision a return to some semblance of normalcy before late summer.”  [USA Today, 1/17/21]

Experts on the Economy

• • Unemployment Expert Andrew Stettner: “The U.S. Just Won’t Be Able To Ramp Up The Rehiring” Of Millions Of Unemployed Workers Until We “Greatly Advance The Fight Against COVID.” “The surge in unemployment claims signals the rising headwinds facing businesses as COVID-19 infections climb and the death toll reaches new records, with 4,300 deaths on Tuesday. The latest jobless claims are among the ‘flashing red warning signs’ that the recovery is being battered by the worsening pandemic, said Andrew Stettner, senior fellow at the Century Foundation and an expert on unemployment… ‘The U.S. just won’t be able to ramp up the rehiring of the 17.47 million workers now relying on benefits until we greatly advance the fight against COVID,’ Stettner said in an emailed statement.” [CBS, 1/14/21]
    
  • AnnElizabeth Konkel, Economist At Indeed Hiring Lab: “It May Take Months To See The Ranks Of The Long-Term Unemployed Drastically Shrink.” “’Collectively, it may take many months to see the ranks of the long-term unemployed drastically shrink. As the pandemic drags on, so does the deep economic pain felt by millions,’ [Indeed Hiring Lab’s AnnElizabeth] Konkel said.”  [NBC News, 1/14/21]
    
  • Moody’s Economist Ryan Sweet: Though The Package Could Help The Economy Recoup Its Decline, The “Labor Market Will Take Longer.”  “All told the new package, which must still be voted on by Congress, would bring to $5.2 trillion the total fiscal stimulus delivered to the U.S. economy since the crisis began, equivalent to about a quarter of U.S. annual economic output. That is enough of a boost for the economy to recoup all its decline from the COVID-19 recession by the third quarter of this year, Moody’s economist Ryan Sweet estimates. But, he adds, ‘the recovery in the labor market will take longer.’” [Reuters, 1/14/21]
    

• Capital Economics Senior Economist Andrew Hunter: “There’s Not Really Much You Can Do From An Economic Policy Perspective When The Pandemic Is Continuing To Rage.” “‘There’s not really much you can do from an economic policy perspective when the pandemic is continuing to rage,’ said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist for Capital Economics. ‘Things are looking good for some time later this year, but it depends first of all on getting vaccines rolled out so things can return to normal.’” [CNN Business, 1/19/21]
  

• Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi: Though GDP Could Soar If Biden’s Package Is Passed, “It’ll Take 18-24 Months To Get All Those Jobs Back.”  “This is a very large package, but it’s about helping the economy hang together as well as it can hang together until the end of the pandemic,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Zandi and other economists believe that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, could soar if Biden gets his full package soon after taking office. But job growth will be far more muted. The US economy lost 22 million jobs in March and April and ended the year with another 140,000 net jobs decline. Even with the 12.5 million jobs recovered in between, that left the headcount at US employers down nearly 10 million during the pandemic. Moody’s forecast that those jobs won’t be fully recovered until 2022, even if Biden gets his full package. ‘We get a lot of growth in GDP up front, but it’ll take 18-24 months to get all those jobs back,’ said Zandi. ‘A lot of people just can’t go back to work until the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.’”  [CNN Business, 1/19/21]